Post WEC 47 Thoughts

- Seemed like we got more fights (7) than normal. Wonder what the count is for previous WEC cards?

- Jens looked to surprise Javier Vazquez with leg kicks, but all it did was get him onto the ground faster. I'm hoping this was his last fight, for his own good. His last win was nearly 3 years ago and his last competitive fight was 2 years ago.

- All WEC bantamweight contenders should have taken notes on Benavidez's strategy against Miguel Torres. Combo into takedowns and keep the pressure on in his guard.

- I have no idea what they do with Torres right now.

- Bowles did the right thing, given the situation he was in. He was clearly not prepared for Cruz's style and strategy and probably would have lost the decision. With his hand not completely effed up, he now has the opportunity to recover sooner, and possibly get an immediate rematch. We'll see how generous the WEC is feeling when they do the matchmaking.

- If he doesn't get the rematch, I think Benavidez/Bowles should be next for #1 contender.

- Bonnar was a refreshing change of pace from Mir. He has less bias when he commentates and isn't as easily excited as Frank.

Post UFC 110 Thoughts

- Nog looked like the Nog from the Mir fight, in which he had a severe Staph infection.
Or was Cain really that much quicker than him?

- Again, Bisping proves he's all bark and no bite.
Looks like the Axe Murderer has a date with his sexiness, Akiyama.

- Sotiropoulos and Bader should no longer be remembered as TUF lowlies, but threats in their respective divisions.

- Why is Mirko fighting still? Does he really need the paycheck?
He's already done so much and I didn't even seem glimmers of his old, badass self.

- Sick submission by Lytle.

UFC 110 Picks

Just a quick rundown because I'm not particularly excited about the match-ups. And I'm really interested in reading Performify's analysis on the card.

Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Unless you're reppin' Team AKA, I'd call you a silly bastard for not picking Minotauro. The man has triple the experience of Cain, can take ungodly amounts of punishment, and is the best HW grappler in the game.
Cain would need to add mercury to his gloves to beat him standing, and channel the living legend, Rickson Gracie, to even remotely stand a chance on the ground. Being an undefeated, blue chip stock in MMA isn't enough to convince me he will beat a legend, that is still showing promises of brilliance in his fights.


Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

I predict this fight will be a little bit like Bisping/Leben, but have a finish similar to Bisping/Henderson.
Bisping is going to apply the same hit and run strategy he tried on Leben and Hendo, on account of the similar standup mentalities all 3 of them have; They are literally trying to kill you with their fists. The biggest difference between those 2 previous fights is that I believe Silva has the explosiveness to catch Bisping. I like Hendo and loved him more after he decimated Bisping's jaw, but I believe that was one really lucky punch he took Bisping out with.


Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

This is George's break into the big leagues and out of TUF squalor. I'm not completely sold on his standup, but I'm also not worried about Joe Daddy's. The interesting part will be how the fight goes on the ground. Both guys have BJJ black belts, but George seems much more comfortable being on top and bottom. Maybe not a finish by sub, but I expect George to be able to transition to the dominant positions for a decision or TKO stoppage.


Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

I honestly can't remember how Jardine fairs on the ground, especially on bottom. There's a 80% chance the fight will end up there, with Bader working some GnP for the TKO.
But I'm also on the fence about the standup battle. All I know is Jardine will come out with his usual flailing monkey style and Bader will most likely be looking for the one hitter quitter.


Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Ben Rothwell
Updated: Rothwell is out with an illness

I'm still analyzing based on the original matchup because I no nothing about Anthony Perosh.
This was probably going to be Crocop's swan song in the UFC. He hasn't looked good in any of his UFC fights and Rothwell is a poor stylistic choice for him.
Rothwell is aggressive in the standup and won't let Crocop setup for any of his vintage strikes. Unless Big Ben gasses quickly, which seemed plausible in his fight against Cain, I don't see Crocop winning.

Guest Post - Frank Mir is a Top Heavyweight

Me and my buddy, Eric, were discussing the upcoming Mir/Carwin fight and it got a little heated because he feels that Mir is better than I give him credit for.
For further elaboration, I asked him to do an entry for the blog:

ABSTRACT

Mir has a realistic chance of beating any heavyweight out there except Fedor. A key point is that he has good submissions off his back, which is critical since many of the top heavyweights are elite wrestlers who will surely put him on his back. (BTW, Mir was a high school state champ in wrestling himself, so actually his wrestling is underrated IMO -- but obviously that just doesn't compare to NCAA All-American.) In most cases it comes down to whether Mir can submit the other guy from his back; if not, his opponent will win by control.

OPPONENTS (IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY)


1. Fedor Emelianenko

Fedor destroys Mir due to superior skills in all aspects of the game. He lands more powerful strikes, has excellent balance on the feet due to being a Sambo champion, and has a fundamentally sound and deadly submission game. Certainly Mir will not be able to submit Fedor, especially since Nogueira couldn't. Mir is not known for his GNP, and the only thing Fedor *might* be susceptible to is a cut. However I expect Fedor will probably take him down and GNP to death.
Fedor is a 75-25 favorite.


2. Josh Barnett

I actually think this would be Mir's greatest test outside of Fedor, not Lesnar or otherwise. (This is due to style matchup, not because I think Barnett is the 2nd best heavyweight.) Barnett is a fairly large heavyweight, who knows how to use his size to control opponents. He has tons of experience, excellent ground game, decent standup. I think he has way too much experience and savvy to be submitted by Mir, and I think he's a little better in all other aspects including wrestling. So he controls the fight and takes the win.
I would make Barnett a 65-35 favorite.


3. Brock Lesnar

Both Lesnar and Mir have the power to hurt the other fighter on the feet. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that Brock takes Mir down. I will just assume that Mir starts from his back. That will basically test Brock's top control against Mir's dangerous guard game. Brock beat Mir in their rematch by overpowering him on the ground. With Mir currently bulked up to 265, and possibly to 285 in the future as planned, this will no longer happen. Although Brock will still be stronger (pending his recovery from his intestinal health problems), he will not be able to overwhelm Mir with brute force on the ground. The question is whether his additional bulk with impede Mir's already suspect cardio. If not, it comes down to a question of skill. Mir has a very dangerous guard and could submit Brock with a variety of submissions. But if he doesn't submit Brock, then Brock takes it by control (Mir also has to be careful about GNP of course).
I put odds at 50-50.


4. Shane Carwin

He has tremendous power so if he hits Mir flush it's lights out; however his striking looks very sloppy. Of course he also has good wrestling and tremendous GNP, relying on sheer power more than technique to overwhelm opponents; in this aspect he is even more dangerous than Brock. I think Mir has more polished striking and will play "stick and move" with him. If he's taken down, as I thin is likely, Mir could submit him off his back, but also an equal probability could get TKO'd via GNP.
I would put odds at 50-50.


5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Mir already beat him, with the caveat that Nogueira had a staph infection. I'm not sure if that explains why Big Nog was so stiff and let Mir uppercut him to death. Even though Nogueira clearly has a better pedigree of fights, he also has much more wear & tear on him. At this stage, I would say he is even with Mir both in standup and on the ground.
I would again say chances of Mir winning are about 50-50.


6. Cain Velasquez

I don't think Cain has the power to finish Mir either on the feet or on the ground, as illustrated by Cain's fight with Kongo. His wrestling will put Mir on his back, where I think Mir would submit him due to his experience. I put Mir a 60-40 favorite.


7. Junior dos Santos

Has good power on the feet, but I think Mir has decent standup -- enough to avoid getting KO'ed. Once on the ground, dos Santos is a purple belt in BJJ, but gets submitted by Mir.
I put Mir as a 70-30 favorite.


8. Brett Rogers

He has great power on the feet, but hasn't shown anything on the ground. If Mir gets him down, I think Mir could easily submit him.
I put Mir at 75-25.


9. Cheick Kongo

Mir already beat him, was easier than I expected. I expected Kongo to hurt Mir on the feet, not the other way around. Once it hit the ground, game was done.

UFC 108 Quick Picks

Happy New Year everyone and thanks for checking out my writings.

I'm a little behind on some entries I wanted out by now, but a new year means a clean slate. Hopefully, you guys will see more interesting articles, and more frequently.


Jr. Dos Santos vs. Gilbert Ivel

Dos Santos via KO, round 2

Both guys are very inclined to stand and strike, but Dos Santos is the better striker of the two. He's got faster hands and better combinations. "Cigano" also has youth and a great camp on his side, Black House. Ivel has been out of his prime for a while and Dos Santos should have no problem laying a crushing combo on "The Hurricane" early on in the fight.


Jim Miller vs. Duane Ludwig

Miller via TKO, round 1

This is basically a gimme for Miller, as he lost two opponents (Sherk and Tyson Griffin) and Ludwig is fighting on very short notice. Miller's wrestling and top control should be too much for the ex-kickboxing champ. Ludwig's ground game is non-existent and he'll have a hard time defending against the takedown. Look for Miller to end this quick with GNP or a submission


Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout

Stout via Decision

Stout is the better striker and needs to be patient with his striking. Keeping some distance with his striking, he should be able to outlast and outpoint "J-Lau". While Lauzon has the better ground game, he has a tendency to rush his gameplan and it'll be tough to keep Stout on the ground for the sub.


Dustin Hazelett vs. Paul Daley

Daley via TKO, round 1

Daley comes in as the heavier (missing weight) and more confident fighter, with a good deal of experience over Dustin. Even disregarding Daley's previous KO's, he already knows Hazelett's gameplan and shouldn't have a problem keeping this standing. "Mclovin" is going to have a tough time getting this fight to the ground and will get caught coming in for either a takedown or in the clinch with a knee or hook.


Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva

Evans via TKO, round 3

Evans has the striking speed and intelligence to implement the perfect plan to take out Silva. If Silva should tag him, he's smart enough switch to a ground offense and wear out Silva. Thiago's only clear strategy has been to confront his opponents head on. He hasn't shown any real speed or complex striking to pose a real threat to "Sugar".

The Strikeforce Middleweight Landscape

Back when Pride had it's Bushido series, it was the place for Lightweights. It was the promotion to make a name for yourself and although it didn't have the true LW kingpin, BJ Penn, it did crown another top LW - Takanori Gomi.
For Middleweights, their Pride Bushido may now be the Strikeforce MW division, and the next great MW may be waiting in the wings.
Here's a quick preview and pseudo-rankings of the more well known movers and shakers.


Dan Henderson - King of the Hill

Not only does Hendo bring elite MMA status and recognition to Strikeforce, he was recently seen by millions on cable TV, coaching Team USA on the UK vs. USA season of TUF. He then offered up a highlight reel KO of Bisping at UFC 100. With KO power in both hands and a jaw seemingly made of titanium, it's a foregone conclusion that he will dethrone current champ, Jake Shields.


Gegard Mousasi - The Heir Apparent

"The Dreamcatcher" is nearly equal parts striker and submission fighter. He has the skills to keep the fight standing and outbox Dan, or work a slick ground game to force the tapout.
While not even 25 years old, Mousasi is riding a ridiculous 14-fight win streak and is the current Dream MW champion.


Ronaldo Souza and Jake Shields - The (Near) Top Dogs

Both guys have been using their established ground skills to rack up some nice wins.
"Jacare" is the more complete ground specialist, excelling in both MMA and the grappling world, having won numerous ADCC titles.
Shields is the current Strikeforce MW champ and hasn't lost since 2004. What he lacks in the striking area, he usually makes up for in a size and strength advantage, easily overpowering most opponents to a submission or decision victory.


Robbie Lawler and Matt Lindland - Best of the Rest

I see these two as being very similar to Souza and Shields, except that they have both lost recently and haven't shown much improvement in areas of their game that desperately need it.
Lawler is a powerful puncher with a good chin, but lacks the grounds skills to avoid submissions.
Lindland has world class, Greco-Roman wrestling that enables him to grind out victories, but very little in the striking department or ground game to defend against submissions.


Cung Le, Frank Shamrock, Jason Miller, Scott Smith - The Gatekeepers

Each of these fighters has recently been adding to both their win and loss columns, which prevents them from advancing any farther on this list.


Nick Diaz and Melvin Manhoef - The Wildcards

Diaz is riding a 5 fight win streak, including obliterations of Smith and Shamrock, but he bounces from Welterweight to Middleweight. Considering Diaz and Shields are both out of the Cesar Gracie camp, it will be unlikely he will attempt to get to the top as a MW.
Manhoef is another big, power puncher that could do some heavy damage to the division. He's similar to Robbie Lawler, in that he prefers to stand up but shares the same weakness of having no ground game.

Post UFC 107 - The Dilemma of the Prodigy

With the stunning and thorough destruction of Diego Sanchez, the UFC is fast running out of options for quality opponents for "The Prodigy". He's decimated his last 5 lightweight opponents (via TKO or sub) since coming back to the UFC and hasn't lost a bout in that division since 2002 against Jens Pulver. It's quite clear that DW and the brothers Fertitta are going to have some trouble coming up with quality matches with the current LW roster, so here's my recommendations:

1. UFC Light Weight Championship - Eddie Alvarez

Probably the biggest challenge BJ has left in all of the LW division, this ex-HS wrestling champ shot up in the rankings after a ridiculous run in the Dream LW tournament, defeating Andre Dida, Tatsuya Kawarjiri and Joachim Hansen. He's the current Bellator LW champ and has an exciting style that would easily draw fans if he were to fight BJ. His style is a blend of speed and power as a standup slugger. While his biggest weakness is one of BJ's strengths, I think Alvarez's wrestling will be the key. His takedowns aren't GSP explosive, but he'll definitely have the size advantage in the clinch and on the ground.
The fight would probably stay on the feet anyway, as both fighters prefer to stand and test their opponent's chin.
If Eddie can beat him to the punch and avoid the best jab in MMA, it's quite possible that Alvarez could connect and be the first fighter to find BJ's kill switch.


(Credit to Machinemen)



2. UFC/WEC Superfight - Jose Aldo

With Jose Aldo's recent ascension to FW destroyer, I think the timing would be a great for a segue into the first WEC PPV. It could be a clash of champions and a stiff test for both.
Aldo is in a similar position as BJ; having starched his last 3 opponents, with no true #1 contender in sight. Both Faber and Brown are clearly 1-2 fights away and even then, I don't see them fairing well. His mix of speed and laser-like, striking precision are currently without peer in any division. I liken him to a prime version of Norifumi "KID" Yamamoto - with better accuracy.
Were this fight to happen, I wouldn't be surprised if this were the first time in a long time that BJ would clearly want to take the fight to the ground. He may have the best MMA boxing, but it won't help if you're repeatedly beaten to the punch. As with the his second fight with GSP, BJ has no answer when he can't counter against a faster opponent. While Aldo, won't have the clear wrestling threat to impose, his speed is frightening to behold.
BJ's only other option will be taking the fight to the ground, which will be considerably tough given a couple factors:

a. His wrestling is sub-par
b. He doesn't have the clear size or strength advantage

Even if it takes 1-2 years, I think both these competitors haven't reached their apex yet and this potential fight could be big bucks for both the UFC and WEC.


(Credit to Teenskater117)


3. UFC WW Contendership - Thiago Alves, Jon Fitch or Josh Koshcheck

This is the idea that DW and Co. are flirting with the most because it's the simplest and easiest from a company internal structure standpoint. Throwing BJ in as WW is less hassle than trying to sign Alvarez or stealing away Aldo from the WEC, even if it's just for one fight from a sister promotion. If he happens to obliterate Aldo, the balance of the FW division could potentially be upset.
The key to a matchup for BJ here would most definitely require no less than a top 5 contender because it needs to be main event material, and clearly relevant for an eventual title shot with GSP. This means no Daley, Swick or Kampmann because they're either on the outskirts of the top 10 or recently dropped a fight. Fitch and Kos are easy choices because they both should easily deserve a title shot with their next couple wins and simply, they will most likely never fight each other unless its for the belt. Alves is in their as an opponent because he's the most recent notch on the champ's proverbial belt, making him no less than 2 rankings removed from the #1 contender spot.
Sticking BJ in as a WW basically means automatically somewhere from 3-5th, depending on how he finishes his first opponent there.


These are the guys that are close but just somehow don't make the cut.


Shinya Aoki - Recently signed with Strikeforce and would only be a challenge if this were an ADCC match.

JZ Calvacante - Coming off 2 losses and knee surgery, the 2x King of Heroes has seen better days.

GSP - What crack would Dana be smoking if he made this match now?

Edgar/Maynard - Sadly, one of them is probably next in line. Either has the wins or names to their credit to deserve a title shot.