UFC 110 Picks

Just a quick rundown because I'm not particularly excited about the match-ups. And I'm really interested in reading Performify's analysis on the card.

Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Unless you're reppin' Team AKA, I'd call you a silly bastard for not picking Minotauro. The man has triple the experience of Cain, can take ungodly amounts of punishment, and is the best HW grappler in the game.
Cain would need to add mercury to his gloves to beat him standing, and channel the living legend, Rickson Gracie, to even remotely stand a chance on the ground. Being an undefeated, blue chip stock in MMA isn't enough to convince me he will beat a legend, that is still showing promises of brilliance in his fights.


Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

I predict this fight will be a little bit like Bisping/Leben, but have a finish similar to Bisping/Henderson.
Bisping is going to apply the same hit and run strategy he tried on Leben and Hendo, on account of the similar standup mentalities all 3 of them have; They are literally trying to kill you with their fists. The biggest difference between those 2 previous fights is that I believe Silva has the explosiveness to catch Bisping. I like Hendo and loved him more after he decimated Bisping's jaw, but I believe that was one really lucky punch he took Bisping out with.


Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

This is George's break into the big leagues and out of TUF squalor. I'm not completely sold on his standup, but I'm also not worried about Joe Daddy's. The interesting part will be how the fight goes on the ground. Both guys have BJJ black belts, but George seems much more comfortable being on top and bottom. Maybe not a finish by sub, but I expect George to be able to transition to the dominant positions for a decision or TKO stoppage.


Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

I honestly can't remember how Jardine fairs on the ground, especially on bottom. There's a 80% chance the fight will end up there, with Bader working some GnP for the TKO.
But I'm also on the fence about the standup battle. All I know is Jardine will come out with his usual flailing monkey style and Bader will most likely be looking for the one hitter quitter.


Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Ben Rothwell
Updated: Rothwell is out with an illness

I'm still analyzing based on the original matchup because I no nothing about Anthony Perosh.
This was probably going to be Crocop's swan song in the UFC. He hasn't looked good in any of his UFC fights and Rothwell is a poor stylistic choice for him.
Rothwell is aggressive in the standup and won't let Crocop setup for any of his vintage strikes. Unless Big Ben gasses quickly, which seemed plausible in his fight against Cain, I don't see Crocop winning.

List Time - Tito Ortiz should NOT Rematch against Forrest Griffin...

Here's my list of opponents, top to bottom, of who'd I think would be most logical for Tito, in his return to the UFC:

1. Keith Jardine
2. Stephan Bonnar
3. Rich Franklin
4. Dan Henderson
5. James Irvin
6. Vladimir Matyushenko

Criteria for selecting opponents (loosely in order, most to least important):

1. Opponents are currently not scheduled to fight
2. Advancement of either fighter's career
3. Combined drawing power of matchup
4. Potential competitiveness of the match
5. Prior history, connection or continuity of the matchup

Finally, my breakdown and reasoning:

1. "The Dean of Mean"

After yet another quick starching by a powerful striker, the "Mean 1" needs an opponent who isn't going to obliterate him in the 1st round, but also will give him a spirited challenge in the Octagon. I really like this matchup because it has the potential for some entertaining action and great techniques from each fighter, based on their respective skill sets. And, it won't end in the first 3 minutes, potentially creating a disappointing main event.
Jardine is the perennial underdog in his high profile matches. Usually, it's been his opponent recruiting the high attendance numbers, but I'd still consider him a decent draw. He always tries to take it to his opponents and has that chance of pulling off the upset, specifically his wins against Liddell and Forrest. A win against Tito would also catapult him back into the top 5 as a LHW, mainly because Tito is a VERY big draw to UFC fans. He also has the means and resources to make this a good fight, with his fighting style and training partner, who nearly defeated Tito, Rashad Evans.


2. Stephan Bonnar

Another popular TUF contestant on the downswing in his UFC career that could use the boost from beating the "Huntington Beach Bad Boy". He's definitely got some drawing power and proposes a good standup game against Ortiz.
A good match up for Tito because Bonnar's standup is good, but doesn't rival Thiago Silva or Houston Alexander, in terms of power, which I see as a mental and physical roadblock for him. In this match, Tito would have the opportunity to showcase his standup and wrestling skills to remind fans of why he was once the UFC LHW Champ.
The "American Pyscho" had his wrestling defense thoroughly exploited by Mark Coleman in his last match and would need to definitely rethink his current strategy when going into matches.


3. Rich Franklin

This would be the biggest draw of all my picks. Two ultra popular, ex-UFC champs squaring off for the first time, having fought common opponents, and both being coaches on TUF, on different seasons.
Almost a "What If?" style match up, since they were both in the LHW division and could have potentially fought had Franklin not dropped down to MW and capture the title.
Franklin poses some interesting challenges for Tito and vice versa. We haven't really seen how Franklin would fair against a wrestler willing to constantly use his takedown and GNP skills to the fullest or Tito go up against a great game-planing, strong, southpaw striker.


4. Dan Henderson

Hendo would be the stiffest challenge because he's a great Greco wrestler who's also willing to sacrifice his body to take your head off with his berserker rage style standup. Tito has exhibited his reluctance to stand and trade if you have previously shown one punch, Ralph-like power. Another reason this matchup isn't exactly favorable to Tito is because his bullying style and wrestling skills usually only work against non-wrestlers and not dudes that have wrestled in the OLYMPICS.
But, in the slim chance that Tito manages to defeat "Hollywood", I don't see how Dana or Joe Silva not take him to the #1 or 2 contender spot in the LWH division.


5. James Irvin

This is the quick and easy route to "put over" Tito. Irvin has the aforementioned power that Tito is afraid of, but Tito is certainly not dumb enough to bang with a one-hitter, quitter, who clearly has doesn't have the ground game to fend him off. This should be a simple snatch and grab, ground and pound win for Tito.
Game over, round 1.
Sorry, James, but at least you get to fight another big name.


6. Vladimir Matyushenko

Lastly, who the hell is this guy?!

I'm throwing in the "Janitor" because nobody ever gives him any love and he's someone that can spoil the current LHW party in the UFC. Here's a bit of history regarding, Vlady:

- One and only IFL LHW Champ
- Beaten some tough opponents: Pedro Rizzo, 'lil Nog, Yuki Kondo
- Very few losses and to tough opponents: 'lil Nog and Andrei Arlovski
- Previously fought Tito in 2001 and took him to a decision

I'm not a big fan of rematches (one of the reasons for this entry) but I think this one makes the most sense out of any for Tito because, a) it's been 8 years since they fought, b) Vlady could easily put Tito over if he lost and c) this would be a very good test for someone who's straddled the line of top 20 LHW's for a while, but never given a strong opportunity to make a name for himself. Every dog has it's day and if you've given one to a gigantic headed Mexi-American, why not to a dude with a nickname based on someone that cleans up garbage for a living?


I'm sure I missed some guys that no doubt should be on this list but keep in mind, I was also looking for favorable matches for Tito, just as much as someone that would stomp him. I am not a fan of Tito, the next UFC LWH champ, but I AM a fan of Tito, the bring more mainstream attention to the UFC, with his cockiness and shameless promoting antics.

Don't forget, WEC tonight!

~S