UFC 110 Picks

Just a quick rundown because I'm not particularly excited about the match-ups. And I'm really interested in reading Performify's analysis on the card.

Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Unless you're reppin' Team AKA, I'd call you a silly bastard for not picking Minotauro. The man has triple the experience of Cain, can take ungodly amounts of punishment, and is the best HW grappler in the game.
Cain would need to add mercury to his gloves to beat him standing, and channel the living legend, Rickson Gracie, to even remotely stand a chance on the ground. Being an undefeated, blue chip stock in MMA isn't enough to convince me he will beat a legend, that is still showing promises of brilliance in his fights.


Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping

I predict this fight will be a little bit like Bisping/Leben, but have a finish similar to Bisping/Henderson.
Bisping is going to apply the same hit and run strategy he tried on Leben and Hendo, on account of the similar standup mentalities all 3 of them have; They are literally trying to kill you with their fists. The biggest difference between those 2 previous fights is that I believe Silva has the explosiveness to catch Bisping. I like Hendo and loved him more after he decimated Bisping's jaw, but I believe that was one really lucky punch he took Bisping out with.


Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos

This is George's break into the big leagues and out of TUF squalor. I'm not completely sold on his standup, but I'm also not worried about Joe Daddy's. The interesting part will be how the fight goes on the ground. Both guys have BJJ black belts, but George seems much more comfortable being on top and bottom. Maybe not a finish by sub, but I expect George to be able to transition to the dominant positions for a decision or TKO stoppage.


Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader

I honestly can't remember how Jardine fairs on the ground, especially on bottom. There's a 80% chance the fight will end up there, with Bader working some GnP for the TKO.
But I'm also on the fence about the standup battle. All I know is Jardine will come out with his usual flailing monkey style and Bader will most likely be looking for the one hitter quitter.


Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Ben Rothwell
Updated: Rothwell is out with an illness

I'm still analyzing based on the original matchup because I no nothing about Anthony Perosh.
This was probably going to be Crocop's swan song in the UFC. He hasn't looked good in any of his UFC fights and Rothwell is a poor stylistic choice for him.
Rothwell is aggressive in the standup and won't let Crocop setup for any of his vintage strikes. Unless Big Ben gasses quickly, which seemed plausible in his fight against Cain, I don't see Crocop winning.

Guest Post - Frank Mir is a Top Heavyweight

Me and my buddy, Eric, were discussing the upcoming Mir/Carwin fight and it got a little heated because he feels that Mir is better than I give him credit for.
For further elaboration, I asked him to do an entry for the blog:

ABSTRACT

Mir has a realistic chance of beating any heavyweight out there except Fedor. A key point is that he has good submissions off his back, which is critical since many of the top heavyweights are elite wrestlers who will surely put him on his back. (BTW, Mir was a high school state champ in wrestling himself, so actually his wrestling is underrated IMO -- but obviously that just doesn't compare to NCAA All-American.) In most cases it comes down to whether Mir can submit the other guy from his back; if not, his opponent will win by control.

OPPONENTS (IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY)


1. Fedor Emelianenko

Fedor destroys Mir due to superior skills in all aspects of the game. He lands more powerful strikes, has excellent balance on the feet due to being a Sambo champion, and has a fundamentally sound and deadly submission game. Certainly Mir will not be able to submit Fedor, especially since Nogueira couldn't. Mir is not known for his GNP, and the only thing Fedor *might* be susceptible to is a cut. However I expect Fedor will probably take him down and GNP to death.
Fedor is a 75-25 favorite.


2. Josh Barnett

I actually think this would be Mir's greatest test outside of Fedor, not Lesnar or otherwise. (This is due to style matchup, not because I think Barnett is the 2nd best heavyweight.) Barnett is a fairly large heavyweight, who knows how to use his size to control opponents. He has tons of experience, excellent ground game, decent standup. I think he has way too much experience and savvy to be submitted by Mir, and I think he's a little better in all other aspects including wrestling. So he controls the fight and takes the win.
I would make Barnett a 65-35 favorite.


3. Brock Lesnar

Both Lesnar and Mir have the power to hurt the other fighter on the feet. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that Brock takes Mir down. I will just assume that Mir starts from his back. That will basically test Brock's top control against Mir's dangerous guard game. Brock beat Mir in their rematch by overpowering him on the ground. With Mir currently bulked up to 265, and possibly to 285 in the future as planned, this will no longer happen. Although Brock will still be stronger (pending his recovery from his intestinal health problems), he will not be able to overwhelm Mir with brute force on the ground. The question is whether his additional bulk with impede Mir's already suspect cardio. If not, it comes down to a question of skill. Mir has a very dangerous guard and could submit Brock with a variety of submissions. But if he doesn't submit Brock, then Brock takes it by control (Mir also has to be careful about GNP of course).
I put odds at 50-50.


4. Shane Carwin

He has tremendous power so if he hits Mir flush it's lights out; however his striking looks very sloppy. Of course he also has good wrestling and tremendous GNP, relying on sheer power more than technique to overwhelm opponents; in this aspect he is even more dangerous than Brock. I think Mir has more polished striking and will play "stick and move" with him. If he's taken down, as I thin is likely, Mir could submit him off his back, but also an equal probability could get TKO'd via GNP.
I would put odds at 50-50.


5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Mir already beat him, with the caveat that Nogueira had a staph infection. I'm not sure if that explains why Big Nog was so stiff and let Mir uppercut him to death. Even though Nogueira clearly has a better pedigree of fights, he also has much more wear & tear on him. At this stage, I would say he is even with Mir both in standup and on the ground.
I would again say chances of Mir winning are about 50-50.


6. Cain Velasquez

I don't think Cain has the power to finish Mir either on the feet or on the ground, as illustrated by Cain's fight with Kongo. His wrestling will put Mir on his back, where I think Mir would submit him due to his experience. I put Mir a 60-40 favorite.


7. Junior dos Santos

Has good power on the feet, but I think Mir has decent standup -- enough to avoid getting KO'ed. Once on the ground, dos Santos is a purple belt in BJJ, but gets submitted by Mir.
I put Mir as a 70-30 favorite.


8. Brett Rogers

He has great power on the feet, but hasn't shown anything on the ground. If Mir gets him down, I think Mir could easily submit him.
I put Mir at 75-25.


9. Cheick Kongo

Mir already beat him, was easier than I expected. I expected Kongo to hurt Mir on the feet, not the other way around. Once it hit the ground, game was done.

UFC 106 - What's Old is New Again

As the title suggests, the UFC basically just reintroduced us to fighters we should already know about, but just seemingly got lost in the shuffle or have been elsewhere as of late.


Forrest Griffin defeats Tito Ortiz via Decision

A righteous decision, if you ask me.
Forrest put on a vintage Forrest display but again showed that weakness when getting taken down and fighting from bottom - no real viable sub attempts or positional defense. He'd have been in real trouble if Ortiz had more gas to unleash his brutal, trademark elbows.
Now that Forrest is back on the wagon, he deserves a step up in competition and someone closer to the title shot. I like Thiago Silva, if he can get through "Sugar".
Tito just makes himself look worse if all he does is make excuses on why he lost. I enjoy hype and trash talk when its reasonable, but claiming a "cracked" skull and 1 sparring session in your fight camp?
"The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" did catch him with a couple takedowns and elbows but nothing that really damaged him to the point where it affected his performance. People are going to point out how bloody Forrest got during the match but have you ever seen his face in high def? Dude has some HEAVY scar tissue.
Tito looked less worse for wear, but easily absorbed more damage. He was catching leg kicks and straight punches like he was on Deadliest Catch. He also really couldn't get a hold of Forrest very well and use some of that body strength he's got going for him. His takedown attempts lacked any real speed or explosion and were quite poor overall.
I'm not sure where Tito goes from here but maybe a mid level, but known LHW, like Keith Jardine.



Josh Koscheck defeats Anthony Johnson via Submission

This was a battle between two very dangerous and skilled opponents that made some stupid mistakes that could have easily cost each other the match. We'll find out in a couple days if the eyepokes on either side really affected the outcome of the match, based on the injuries each man reports. Nevertheless, Koscheck scored a well deserved win and proved he's probably next after Hardy for the WW title. He hung with "Rumble" standing and his wrestling put the nails in Johnson's coffin.
Johnson just looked like a fish out of water on his back. The best he could really do was hold full and half guard which obviously isn't enough against a D-1 wrestler AND a top 10 UFC WW. Johnson's strikes always come with power but were just slightly off the mark that night; Nothing landed flush or cleanly enough to affect Koscheck. I have a suspicion that Johnson didn't really work on takedown defense, which was probably the most important thing to utilize against a standout wrestler like "Kos". Maybe he'll adapt to a better gameplan the next time he's up against someone that can easily put him on his back.


Paulo Thiago defeats Jacob Volkmann

Well fought victory by Thiago and should definitely move him up on the next card he fights. He mixed it up well with standup and grappling and kept Volkmann guessing. His standup combination's were right on the money and definitely took "Christmas" out of his game. He had a couple missteps working his ground game and surprisingly showed a lack of positional defense for a BJJ black belt.
And for a guy with less submission accolades, Volkmann displayed some well put-together ground offense. We also now know that Volkmann's like a Timex and has a hard noggin.


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira defeats Luis Cane via TKO

Excellent debut for "Minotauro" and a fairly embarrassing loss for "Banha". We'd never really seen Cane that exposed, especially on the feet. He's excelled in that area since he came into the UFC.
Rogerio's performance should be a warning to all future opponents - don't box with a world class southpaw unless you enjoy kissing canvas.


Amir Sadollah defeats Phil Baroni via Decision

A very good rebound win for Sadollah, after the embarrassingly, quick loss to Johnny Hendricks. Who knew he had extensive Muy Thai experience?
It's like they added that stat and all of a sudden, BOOM. He can throw devastating knees in the Thai Plum.
Getting Baroni back in the UFC was an excellent defensive play by DW and the Fertittas. Him in the UFC means not in Strikeforce or Dream. Plus, how can you hate on the NYBA's sparkly, red robe?
He seriously needs to change up his training routine if he wants to be a UFC regular for any sort of duration. All that muscle is not doing him any good, other than winning toughest fighter at the local Crunch award. His current gas tank allows him about 1.5 rounds of reasonable offense (on a good day). Even in a lighter division, I'm surprised he's still packing on that much bulk.

Next up TUF Finale in 2 weeks and hopefully quick analysis of ADCC '09.

~S