Me and my buddy, Eric, were discussing the upcoming Mir/Carwin fight and it got a little heated because he feels that Mir is better than I give him credit for.
For further elaboration, I asked him to do an entry for the blog:
ABSTRACT
Mir has a realistic chance of beating any heavyweight out there except Fedor. A key point is that he has good submissions off his back, which is critical since many of the top heavyweights are elite wrestlers who will surely put him on his back. (BTW, Mir was a high school state champ in wrestling himself, so actually his wrestling is underrated IMO -- but obviously that just doesn't compare to NCAA All-American.) In most cases it comes down to whether Mir can submit the other guy from his back; if not, his opponent will win by control.
OPPONENTS (IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY)
1. Fedor Emelianenko
Fedor destroys Mir due to superior skills in all aspects of the game. He lands more powerful strikes, has excellent balance on the feet due to being a Sambo champion, and has a fundamentally sound and deadly submission game. Certainly Mir will not be able to submit Fedor, especially since Nogueira couldn't. Mir is not known for his GNP, and the only thing Fedor *might* be susceptible to is a cut. However I expect Fedor will probably take him down and GNP to death.
Fedor is a 75-25 favorite.
2. Josh Barnett
I actually think this would be Mir's greatest test outside of Fedor, not Lesnar or otherwise. (This is due to style matchup, not because I think Barnett is the 2nd best heavyweight.) Barnett is a fairly large heavyweight, who knows how to use his size to control opponents. He has tons of experience, excellent ground game, decent standup. I think he has way too much experience and savvy to be submitted by Mir, and I think he's a little better in all other aspects including wrestling. So he controls the fight and takes the win.
I would make Barnett a 65-35 favorite.
3. Brock Lesnar
Both Lesnar and Mir have the power to hurt the other fighter on the feet. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that Brock takes Mir down. I will just assume that Mir starts from his back. That will basically test Brock's top control against Mir's dangerous guard game. Brock beat Mir in their rematch by overpowering him on the ground. With Mir currently bulked up to 265, and possibly to 285 in the future as planned, this will no longer happen. Although Brock will still be stronger (pending his recovery from his intestinal health problems), he will not be able to overwhelm Mir with brute force on the ground. The question is whether his additional bulk with impede Mir's already suspect cardio. If not, it comes down to a question of skill. Mir has a very dangerous guard and could submit Brock with a variety of submissions. But if he doesn't submit Brock, then Brock takes it by control (Mir also has to be careful about GNP of course).
I put odds at 50-50.
4. Shane Carwin
He has tremendous power so if he hits Mir flush it's lights out; however his striking looks very sloppy. Of course he also has good wrestling and tremendous GNP, relying on sheer power more than technique to overwhelm opponents; in this aspect he is even more dangerous than Brock. I think Mir has more polished striking and will play "stick and move" with him. If he's taken down, as I thin is likely, Mir could submit him off his back, but also an equal probability could get TKO'd via GNP.
I would put odds at 50-50.
5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mir already beat him, with the caveat that Nogueira had a staph infection. I'm not sure if that explains why Big Nog was so stiff and let Mir uppercut him to death. Even though Nogueira clearly has a better pedigree of fights, he also has much more wear & tear on him. At this stage, I would say he is even with Mir both in standup and on the ground.
I would again say chances of Mir winning are about 50-50.
6. Cain Velasquez
I don't think Cain has the power to finish Mir either on the feet or on the ground, as illustrated by Cain's fight with Kongo. His wrestling will put Mir on his back, where I think Mir would submit him due to his experience. I put Mir a 60-40 favorite.
7. Junior dos Santos
Has good power on the feet, but I think Mir has decent standup -- enough to avoid getting KO'ed. Once on the ground, dos Santos is a purple belt in BJJ, but gets submitted by Mir.
I put Mir as a 70-30 favorite.
8. Brett Rogers
He has great power on the feet, but hasn't shown anything on the ground. If Mir gets him down, I think Mir could easily submit him.
I put Mir at 75-25.
9. Cheick Kongo
Mir already beat him, was easier than I expected. I expected Kongo to hurt Mir on the feet, not the other way around. Once it hit the ground, game was done.
Showing posts with label fedor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fedor. Show all posts
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Strikeforce - The Emperor and his peasants
I have a confession to make.
Although I had some interest in all the televised cards, I would have paid just to see the last match.
When the "Last Emperor" fights, his followers shall watch.
Otherwise, somewhat of a lackluster card, if you ask me.
And you are, if you're reading my blog.
Fabricio Werdum defeats Antonio Silva via Decision
I was really favoring Silva in this match, because he's got a lot of potential in a division where hype seems to be all that matters. He's got good endurance and standup for a HW and dangerous on the ground with his BJJ. He was smart to make Werdum get up when he wanted to tangle on the ground and the only things he really had to fear standing were Werdum's knees and leg kicks, which were somewhat sparse.
In contrast, not only did I NOT want Fabricio to win, I think he's very overrated and should have lost this match. I thought round 2 could have gone either way, but that could be my bias towards "Bigfoot". His accolades in ADCC are definitely nothing to scoff at, but I think he's got a lot of unused potential and he hasn't really shown anything new or even try to develop any other skills that could make him a formidable HW. If he wants to get owned by Fedor in his next match, so be it. Overeem's probably going to come up with some health related excuse and end up vacating the title anyway.
Gegard Mousasi defeats Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou via TKO
For those of you that haven't been watching Dream, you just saw the finals of the Super Hulk tournament.
"Judo Terry" really needs to change up his training regiment. He's sooooooooooo talented and athletic, but he's come up short recently against anyone not under 285 lbs. I think he's packing on way too much muscle and needs to up his cardio and technical acumen. He was definitely holding his own in the 1st and even beat Mousasi to the punch a couple times. I believe his quickness won't diminish if he loses some muscle.
Mousasi looked a little less sharp than usual and it showed in his standup and on the ground. His GNP and his guard were both quite loose and had he been up against an opponent with a better ground game, he'd have been in trouble. Nonetheless, he still had that ability to turn it on when he needed to and he'll probably face a really tough opponent for his first title defense.
You sign that contract yet, Hendo?
Jake Shields defeats Jason Miller via Decision
If you talked to my friends, they'd tell you that I have this illogical reverence for Matt Lindland. The man has no standup and just looks plain goofy. BUT, he's an elite wrestler, specifically Greco-Roman and uses it very well in his MMA career. He's easily in the top 15 of the MW division. How does this relate to this match?
I'd think it's quite obvious - Jake Shields is Matt Lindland, 2.0!
Both guys can't strike for squat, use their wrestling skills to dominate and outpoint their opponents to decision victories.
Shields has some added bonuses, with his BJJ skills and upper body strength. I don't think we'll ever see him change up his gameplan for the simple fact that he can't advance his striking skills and he's already too heavily reliant on his wrestling to win him matches. Regardless of those facts and opinion, I still give him props for going the distance against the wily Jason Miller.
Miller showed some flashes of brilliance and skill in the match, especially in round 3 where he almost put Jake to sleep. I was somewhat disappointed by his performance and granted, he was expected to lose, I really felt like Shields didn't really have much over "Mayhem" that he couldn't overcome. It was clear that Miller's standup was better and he had some pretty flashy suplex takedowns. I didn't really think he was that patient standing because he got taken down way too easily and he could have controlled a standup battle for all 5 rounds if he wanted. I hope his cockiness didn't convince him to try and beat Jake at his own game by trying to match him on the ground. Does he remember anything from his first match with Jacare?
Fedor Emelianenko defeats Brett Rogers via TKO
It makes me sad when you meet someone that likes to watch MMA, but has never heard of Fedor.
"He's the best HW in the world?!"
"But he's so pudgy and looks out of shape."
Then you realize these guys have been limited to watching TUF and owning clothing from Affliction or Ed Hardy.
But anywho, to really understand the awesomeness that is the best HW to ever set foot in a cage or ring, you must go through his Pride run and watch his matches in the context that he was going up against the top rated guys of the time. AND he demolished EVERYONE one of them.
He rarely lost rounds, gave up position or got caught.
This fight went a little different.
Right at the opening bell, Fedor's nose was busted open and Rogers proved he wasn't a flash in the pan, with his bear strength, composure and ground defense. He definitely was not afraid to stand and trade, while utilizing some patience to throw more feints than sloppy, wild punches. His upper body strength clearly helped him on the ground and his GNP on Fedor in the 1st round nearly made my heart stop.
THIS man-beast was going to defeat the #1 HW in the world?!
Luckily, Fedor's jaw is a composite of bone, vodka and adamantium, so he was barely fazed by the punches. The second round was appearing to go the same as the first, until Fedor realized the ice cream truck outside was waiting for him, thus spoiling the night for "The Grim".
As usual, Fedor showed no emotion upon using his Right Hand of Doom to knock Brett into last week. I think he was a little surprised by Brett's strength and defense on the ground. This was one of the rare matches where Fedor proved somewhat ineffective on the ground. First he got caught in that GNP sequence when he was on bottom and then he was unable to keep Brett on the ground, which would have been his biggest advantage. I actually thought if Rogers were to win, it would be via KO or TKO.
Did I ever doubt Fedor's standup against "The Grim"?
Course not.
My main concern for him standing is that he puts so much of his body into his punches, that he may eventually get caught, or lose his quickness at that exact wrong moment.
I give both men respect in this war: Rogers for having the heart and composure to last longer than any of Fedor's opponents in the last 3 years and Fedor for overcoming an early broken nose and the brutal, heavy hands of Brett Rogers.
Next up, I'll do some quick Sengoku analysis and then another rewind to ADCC 2009.
Yay for the grappling junkies!
~S
Although I had some interest in all the televised cards, I would have paid just to see the last match.
When the "Last Emperor" fights, his followers shall watch.
Otherwise, somewhat of a lackluster card, if you ask me.
And you are, if you're reading my blog.
Fabricio Werdum defeats Antonio Silva via Decision
I was really favoring Silva in this match, because he's got a lot of potential in a division where hype seems to be all that matters. He's got good endurance and standup for a HW and dangerous on the ground with his BJJ. He was smart to make Werdum get up when he wanted to tangle on the ground and the only things he really had to fear standing were Werdum's knees and leg kicks, which were somewhat sparse.
In contrast, not only did I NOT want Fabricio to win, I think he's very overrated and should have lost this match. I thought round 2 could have gone either way, but that could be my bias towards "Bigfoot". His accolades in ADCC are definitely nothing to scoff at, but I think he's got a lot of unused potential and he hasn't really shown anything new or even try to develop any other skills that could make him a formidable HW. If he wants to get owned by Fedor in his next match, so be it. Overeem's probably going to come up with some health related excuse and end up vacating the title anyway.
Gegard Mousasi defeats Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou via TKO
For those of you that haven't been watching Dream, you just saw the finals of the Super Hulk tournament.
"Judo Terry" really needs to change up his training regiment. He's sooooooooooo talented and athletic, but he's come up short recently against anyone not under 285 lbs. I think he's packing on way too much muscle and needs to up his cardio and technical acumen. He was definitely holding his own in the 1st and even beat Mousasi to the punch a couple times. I believe his quickness won't diminish if he loses some muscle.
Mousasi looked a little less sharp than usual and it showed in his standup and on the ground. His GNP and his guard were both quite loose and had he been up against an opponent with a better ground game, he'd have been in trouble. Nonetheless, he still had that ability to turn it on when he needed to and he'll probably face a really tough opponent for his first title defense.
You sign that contract yet, Hendo?
Jake Shields defeats Jason Miller via Decision
If you talked to my friends, they'd tell you that I have this illogical reverence for Matt Lindland. The man has no standup and just looks plain goofy. BUT, he's an elite wrestler, specifically Greco-Roman and uses it very well in his MMA career. He's easily in the top 15 of the MW division. How does this relate to this match?
I'd think it's quite obvious - Jake Shields is Matt Lindland, 2.0!
Both guys can't strike for squat, use their wrestling skills to dominate and outpoint their opponents to decision victories.
Shields has some added bonuses, with his BJJ skills and upper body strength. I don't think we'll ever see him change up his gameplan for the simple fact that he can't advance his striking skills and he's already too heavily reliant on his wrestling to win him matches. Regardless of those facts and opinion, I still give him props for going the distance against the wily Jason Miller.
Miller showed some flashes of brilliance and skill in the match, especially in round 3 where he almost put Jake to sleep. I was somewhat disappointed by his performance and granted, he was expected to lose, I really felt like Shields didn't really have much over "Mayhem" that he couldn't overcome. It was clear that Miller's standup was better and he had some pretty flashy suplex takedowns. I didn't really think he was that patient standing because he got taken down way too easily and he could have controlled a standup battle for all 5 rounds if he wanted. I hope his cockiness didn't convince him to try and beat Jake at his own game by trying to match him on the ground. Does he remember anything from his first match with Jacare?
Fedor Emelianenko defeats Brett Rogers via TKO
It makes me sad when you meet someone that likes to watch MMA, but has never heard of Fedor.
"He's the best HW in the world?!"
"But he's so pudgy and looks out of shape."
Then you realize these guys have been limited to watching TUF and owning clothing from Affliction or Ed Hardy.
But anywho, to really understand the awesomeness that is the best HW to ever set foot in a cage or ring, you must go through his Pride run and watch his matches in the context that he was going up against the top rated guys of the time. AND he demolished EVERYONE one of them.
He rarely lost rounds, gave up position or got caught.
This fight went a little different.
Right at the opening bell, Fedor's nose was busted open and Rogers proved he wasn't a flash in the pan, with his bear strength, composure and ground defense. He definitely was not afraid to stand and trade, while utilizing some patience to throw more feints than sloppy, wild punches. His upper body strength clearly helped him on the ground and his GNP on Fedor in the 1st round nearly made my heart stop.
THIS man-beast was going to defeat the #1 HW in the world?!
Luckily, Fedor's jaw is a composite of bone, vodka and adamantium, so he was barely fazed by the punches. The second round was appearing to go the same as the first, until Fedor realized the ice cream truck outside was waiting for him, thus spoiling the night for "The Grim".
As usual, Fedor showed no emotion upon using his Right Hand of Doom to knock Brett into last week. I think he was a little surprised by Brett's strength and defense on the ground. This was one of the rare matches where Fedor proved somewhat ineffective on the ground. First he got caught in that GNP sequence when he was on bottom and then he was unable to keep Brett on the ground, which would have been his biggest advantage. I actually thought if Rogers were to win, it would be via KO or TKO.
Did I ever doubt Fedor's standup against "The Grim"?
Course not.
My main concern for him standing is that he puts so much of his body into his punches, that he may eventually get caught, or lose his quickness at that exact wrong moment.
I give both men respect in this war: Rogers for having the heart and composure to last longer than any of Fedor's opponents in the last 3 years and Fedor for overcoming an early broken nose and the brutal, heavy hands of Brett Rogers.
Next up, I'll do some quick Sengoku analysis and then another rewind to ADCC 2009.
Yay for the grappling junkies!
~S
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