Post UFC 107 - The Dilemma of the Prodigy

With the stunning and thorough destruction of Diego Sanchez, the UFC is fast running out of options for quality opponents for "The Prodigy". He's decimated his last 5 lightweight opponents (via TKO or sub) since coming back to the UFC and hasn't lost a bout in that division since 2002 against Jens Pulver. It's quite clear that DW and the brothers Fertitta are going to have some trouble coming up with quality matches with the current LW roster, so here's my recommendations:

1. UFC Light Weight Championship - Eddie Alvarez

Probably the biggest challenge BJ has left in all of the LW division, this ex-HS wrestling champ shot up in the rankings after a ridiculous run in the Dream LW tournament, defeating Andre Dida, Tatsuya Kawarjiri and Joachim Hansen. He's the current Bellator LW champ and has an exciting style that would easily draw fans if he were to fight BJ. His style is a blend of speed and power as a standup slugger. While his biggest weakness is one of BJ's strengths, I think Alvarez's wrestling will be the key. His takedowns aren't GSP explosive, but he'll definitely have the size advantage in the clinch and on the ground.
The fight would probably stay on the feet anyway, as both fighters prefer to stand and test their opponent's chin.
If Eddie can beat him to the punch and avoid the best jab in MMA, it's quite possible that Alvarez could connect and be the first fighter to find BJ's kill switch.


(Credit to Machinemen)



2. UFC/WEC Superfight - Jose Aldo

With Jose Aldo's recent ascension to FW destroyer, I think the timing would be a great for a segue into the first WEC PPV. It could be a clash of champions and a stiff test for both.
Aldo is in a similar position as BJ; having starched his last 3 opponents, with no true #1 contender in sight. Both Faber and Brown are clearly 1-2 fights away and even then, I don't see them fairing well. His mix of speed and laser-like, striking precision are currently without peer in any division. I liken him to a prime version of Norifumi "KID" Yamamoto - with better accuracy.
Were this fight to happen, I wouldn't be surprised if this were the first time in a long time that BJ would clearly want to take the fight to the ground. He may have the best MMA boxing, but it won't help if you're repeatedly beaten to the punch. As with the his second fight with GSP, BJ has no answer when he can't counter against a faster opponent. While Aldo, won't have the clear wrestling threat to impose, his speed is frightening to behold.
BJ's only other option will be taking the fight to the ground, which will be considerably tough given a couple factors:

a. His wrestling is sub-par
b. He doesn't have the clear size or strength advantage

Even if it takes 1-2 years, I think both these competitors haven't reached their apex yet and this potential fight could be big bucks for both the UFC and WEC.


(Credit to Teenskater117)


3. UFC WW Contendership - Thiago Alves, Jon Fitch or Josh Koshcheck

This is the idea that DW and Co. are flirting with the most because it's the simplest and easiest from a company internal structure standpoint. Throwing BJ in as WW is less hassle than trying to sign Alvarez or stealing away Aldo from the WEC, even if it's just for one fight from a sister promotion. If he happens to obliterate Aldo, the balance of the FW division could potentially be upset.
The key to a matchup for BJ here would most definitely require no less than a top 5 contender because it needs to be main event material, and clearly relevant for an eventual title shot with GSP. This means no Daley, Swick or Kampmann because they're either on the outskirts of the top 10 or recently dropped a fight. Fitch and Kos are easy choices because they both should easily deserve a title shot with their next couple wins and simply, they will most likely never fight each other unless its for the belt. Alves is in their as an opponent because he's the most recent notch on the champ's proverbial belt, making him no less than 2 rankings removed from the #1 contender spot.
Sticking BJ in as a WW basically means automatically somewhere from 3-5th, depending on how he finishes his first opponent there.


These are the guys that are close but just somehow don't make the cut.


Shinya Aoki - Recently signed with Strikeforce and would only be a challenge if this were an ADCC match.

JZ Calvacante - Coming off 2 losses and knee surgery, the 2x King of Heroes has seen better days.

GSP - What crack would Dana be smoking if he made this match now?

Edgar/Maynard - Sadly, one of them is probably next in line. Either has the wins or names to their credit to deserve a title shot.

UFC 106 - What's Old is New Again

As the title suggests, the UFC basically just reintroduced us to fighters we should already know about, but just seemingly got lost in the shuffle or have been elsewhere as of late.


Forrest Griffin defeats Tito Ortiz via Decision

A righteous decision, if you ask me.
Forrest put on a vintage Forrest display but again showed that weakness when getting taken down and fighting from bottom - no real viable sub attempts or positional defense. He'd have been in real trouble if Ortiz had more gas to unleash his brutal, trademark elbows.
Now that Forrest is back on the wagon, he deserves a step up in competition and someone closer to the title shot. I like Thiago Silva, if he can get through "Sugar".
Tito just makes himself look worse if all he does is make excuses on why he lost. I enjoy hype and trash talk when its reasonable, but claiming a "cracked" skull and 1 sparring session in your fight camp?
"The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" did catch him with a couple takedowns and elbows but nothing that really damaged him to the point where it affected his performance. People are going to point out how bloody Forrest got during the match but have you ever seen his face in high def? Dude has some HEAVY scar tissue.
Tito looked less worse for wear, but easily absorbed more damage. He was catching leg kicks and straight punches like he was on Deadliest Catch. He also really couldn't get a hold of Forrest very well and use some of that body strength he's got going for him. His takedown attempts lacked any real speed or explosion and were quite poor overall.
I'm not sure where Tito goes from here but maybe a mid level, but known LHW, like Keith Jardine.



Josh Koscheck defeats Anthony Johnson via Submission

This was a battle between two very dangerous and skilled opponents that made some stupid mistakes that could have easily cost each other the match. We'll find out in a couple days if the eyepokes on either side really affected the outcome of the match, based on the injuries each man reports. Nevertheless, Koscheck scored a well deserved win and proved he's probably next after Hardy for the WW title. He hung with "Rumble" standing and his wrestling put the nails in Johnson's coffin.
Johnson just looked like a fish out of water on his back. The best he could really do was hold full and half guard which obviously isn't enough against a D-1 wrestler AND a top 10 UFC WW. Johnson's strikes always come with power but were just slightly off the mark that night; Nothing landed flush or cleanly enough to affect Koscheck. I have a suspicion that Johnson didn't really work on takedown defense, which was probably the most important thing to utilize against a standout wrestler like "Kos". Maybe he'll adapt to a better gameplan the next time he's up against someone that can easily put him on his back.


Paulo Thiago defeats Jacob Volkmann

Well fought victory by Thiago and should definitely move him up on the next card he fights. He mixed it up well with standup and grappling and kept Volkmann guessing. His standup combination's were right on the money and definitely took "Christmas" out of his game. He had a couple missteps working his ground game and surprisingly showed a lack of positional defense for a BJJ black belt.
And for a guy with less submission accolades, Volkmann displayed some well put-together ground offense. We also now know that Volkmann's like a Timex and has a hard noggin.


Antonio Rogerio Nogueira defeats Luis Cane via TKO

Excellent debut for "Minotauro" and a fairly embarrassing loss for "Banha". We'd never really seen Cane that exposed, especially on the feet. He's excelled in that area since he came into the UFC.
Rogerio's performance should be a warning to all future opponents - don't box with a world class southpaw unless you enjoy kissing canvas.


Amir Sadollah defeats Phil Baroni via Decision

A very good rebound win for Sadollah, after the embarrassingly, quick loss to Johnny Hendricks. Who knew he had extensive Muy Thai experience?
It's like they added that stat and all of a sudden, BOOM. He can throw devastating knees in the Thai Plum.
Getting Baroni back in the UFC was an excellent defensive play by DW and the Fertittas. Him in the UFC means not in Strikeforce or Dream. Plus, how can you hate on the NYBA's sparkly, red robe?
He seriously needs to change up his training routine if he wants to be a UFC regular for any sort of duration. All that muscle is not doing him any good, other than winning toughest fighter at the local Crunch award. His current gas tank allows him about 1.5 rounds of reasonable offense (on a good day). Even in a lighter division, I'm surprised he's still packing on that much bulk.

Next up TUF Finale in 2 weeks and hopefully quick analysis of ADCC '09.

~S