- Excellent kimura sweep by Miller; Shades of Parisysan/Dave Strasser.
- Miller defending the RNC with only one arm was impressive.
- What puts you in better standing with the UFC?
Beating a lesser opponent, or stepping up at the last minute to face a #2 or 3 title contender and losing?
- For the 13,000th time, we see Fitch triumphant in a less than crowd pleasing performance.
- Fitch isn't the only one to blame for the fight outcome. When opponents can't stop his lay n' pray, why should he have to change tactics?
- Champion Chuck had it right.
Let the wrestler come to you, wait for the shoot or clinch, and counter.
- Nice wrestling and ground chops by Pellegrino.
- Carwin has scary speed and power, combined with lunchbox sized fists.
- Beautiful heelhook by Palhares, bad end result.
- GSP via utter domination and body Karate.
- Not much GSP can do when Hardy has that much heart and pain threshold
- Dan Miragliotta and NJ should have more of an open mind to ground and clinch fighting.
Quote of the Night:
"Look at Jared Hamman, he looks like a postman."
Joe Rogan
Monday, March 29, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
UFC 111 Picks
Sorry guys, gotta make this one super quick.
Georges St-Pierre (19-2) vs. Dan Hardy (23-6)
GSP via wrestling, striking and/or submission.
15% chance for Hardy, via random punch while GSP is thinking about Canada, hockey or his Gatorade money.
Frank Mir (13-4) vs. Shane Carwin (11-0)
Multiple sites have reported Carwin looked pudgy and ill at the weigh-ins, but I'm still gonna pick him. Carwin via KO in the 1st or GNP in the 2nd after he takes down Mir.
If Mir can keep it standing and Carwin gases out quick, Mir could take this with strikes in the 2nd or 3rd. I think a sub is unlikely, given Mir would be hard pressed to keep Carwin in one position for a good amount of time to pull anything off.
Kurt Pellegrino (14-4) vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
Camoes is an unknown to me, other than he's a Royler black belt, which means he's got a good submission game.
I'm going to take Pellegrino via decision, by using his wrestling to neutralize Camoes ground game. Pellegrino will probably employ the same game plan as when he fought Nate Diaz, just not get subbed at the very end of the fight.
Jon Fitch (21-3) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
Fitch via booooooooooring decision.
I'm rooting for Saunders only because he's more exciting to watch and if he wins, it'll be an impressive KO and victory.
Jim Miller (16-2) vs. Mark Bocek (8-2)
Miller has been on a roll and don't see why it won't continue here. I see a victory via his superior wrestling and striking skills against Bocek.
Georges St-Pierre (19-2) vs. Dan Hardy (23-6)
GSP via wrestling, striking and/or submission.
15% chance for Hardy, via random punch while GSP is thinking about Canada, hockey or his Gatorade money.
Frank Mir (13-4) vs. Shane Carwin (11-0)
Multiple sites have reported Carwin looked pudgy and ill at the weigh-ins, but I'm still gonna pick him. Carwin via KO in the 1st or GNP in the 2nd after he takes down Mir.
If Mir can keep it standing and Carwin gases out quick, Mir could take this with strikes in the 2nd or 3rd. I think a sub is unlikely, given Mir would be hard pressed to keep Carwin in one position for a good amount of time to pull anything off.
Kurt Pellegrino (14-4) vs. Fabricio Camoes (10-4-1)
Camoes is an unknown to me, other than he's a Royler black belt, which means he's got a good submission game.
I'm going to take Pellegrino via decision, by using his wrestling to neutralize Camoes ground game. Pellegrino will probably employ the same game plan as when he fought Nate Diaz, just not get subbed at the very end of the fight.
Jon Fitch (21-3) vs. Ben Saunders (8-1-2)
Fitch via booooooooooring decision.
I'm rooting for Saunders only because he's more exciting to watch and if he wins, it'll be an impressive KO and victory.
Jim Miller (16-2) vs. Mark Bocek (8-2)
Miller has been on a roll and don't see why it won't continue here. I see a victory via his superior wrestling and striking skills against Bocek.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
UFC on Versus: Vera vs. Jones Picks
I'm pretty excited for this card - lots of potential for great finishes, with the striker-heavy match ups.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera
Johnny Bones is the UFC's fast rising star, while Vera was in a similar scenario, back when first got into the UFC in '05. If this were the Vera right after the Assuerio Silva and Frank Mir starchings, I'd probably give it to him. He showed a great combination of skilled, technical aggression and confidence when he first got into the UFC. Today, he's much more docile and gun shy against his opponents.
Jones, on the other hand, is the epitome of wild, youthful, aggression With the dynamic striking displayed in his previous fights, fans are excited at the prospect of what he'll try and pull off next. I like his unorthodox standup to stifle Vera on the feet, now allowing Brandon to find his range or counter strike effectively. The only area that worries me for Jones is on the ground, where "The Truth" holds a BJJ brown belt with master Lloyd Irvin.
Otherwise, Vera's experience won't be enough to withstand Jones' fresh and creative striking, coupled with his wrestling skills.
Heavyweight Bout: Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Again, it's another ex-rising star, against the exciting and potential contender. And again, the ground is where this fight should be decided.
Gonzaga has shown more than enough in previous fights and in submission fighting accolades that he's the superior grappler. I don't doubt Cigano's BJJ skills, since he trains with Demian Maia and Minotauro, but when a fighter doesn't choose to utilize certain skills, I consider that more than a point of non-preference, but also as an issue in comfort with ones own skillset in that particular area.
Be that as it may, Dos Santos should be able to take this one by round 2, with a KO or TKO. He's got better footwork and standup, so all he needs to do is avoid the clinch and TD shots from Napao.
Heavyweight Bout: Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello
More guys that like to put hands on their opponents, so another potential KO of the night here.
This one is going to start off slow and ramp up quickly. With Kongo getting tagged real bad in his last fight, I don't see him coming in to make it a short night and Buentello tends to try and pick up on his opponent's standup rhythm and patterns before going in for the kill.
This is a hard one to pick Buentello because he's got the height, reach and speed disadvantage. Barring "The Headhunter's" KO power and better footwork, Kongo's going to have make an assortment of pretty stupid mistake to lose this one.
Middleweight Bout: Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin
This one is tricky to call.
Both guys have been on long layoffs, so it's hard to anticipate how each guy will react. I'm very surprised that some sports books have Irvin as the favorite, as he's had the much longer layoff (nearly 20 months), previously recovered from drug addiction and a drop to Middleweight.
Sakara, on the other hand, is on a 2-fight win streak. His chin can be a bit suspect at times, but I'm going to have to give the nod to him in this one.
It could also possibly be a boring 3 round stinker due to accumulated ring rust.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Jon Jones vs. Brandon Vera
Johnny Bones is the UFC's fast rising star, while Vera was in a similar scenario, back when first got into the UFC in '05. If this were the Vera right after the Assuerio Silva and Frank Mir starchings, I'd probably give it to him. He showed a great combination of skilled, technical aggression and confidence when he first got into the UFC. Today, he's much more docile and gun shy against his opponents.
Jones, on the other hand, is the epitome of wild, youthful, aggression With the dynamic striking displayed in his previous fights, fans are excited at the prospect of what he'll try and pull off next. I like his unorthodox standup to stifle Vera on the feet, now allowing Brandon to find his range or counter strike effectively. The only area that worries me for Jones is on the ground, where "The Truth" holds a BJJ brown belt with master Lloyd Irvin.
Otherwise, Vera's experience won't be enough to withstand Jones' fresh and creative striking, coupled with his wrestling skills.
Heavyweight Bout: Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Again, it's another ex-rising star, against the exciting and potential contender. And again, the ground is where this fight should be decided.
Gonzaga has shown more than enough in previous fights and in submission fighting accolades that he's the superior grappler. I don't doubt Cigano's BJJ skills, since he trains with Demian Maia and Minotauro, but when a fighter doesn't choose to utilize certain skills, I consider that more than a point of non-preference, but also as an issue in comfort with ones own skillset in that particular area.
Be that as it may, Dos Santos should be able to take this one by round 2, with a KO or TKO. He's got better footwork and standup, so all he needs to do is avoid the clinch and TD shots from Napao.
Heavyweight Bout: Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello
More guys that like to put hands on their opponents, so another potential KO of the night here.
This one is going to start off slow and ramp up quickly. With Kongo getting tagged real bad in his last fight, I don't see him coming in to make it a short night and Buentello tends to try and pick up on his opponent's standup rhythm and patterns before going in for the kill.
This is a hard one to pick Buentello because he's got the height, reach and speed disadvantage. Barring "The Headhunter's" KO power and better footwork, Kongo's going to have make an assortment of pretty stupid mistake to lose this one.
Middleweight Bout: Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin
This one is tricky to call.
Both guys have been on long layoffs, so it's hard to anticipate how each guy will react. I'm very surprised that some sports books have Irvin as the favorite, as he's had the much longer layoff (nearly 20 months), previously recovered from drug addiction and a drop to Middleweight.
Sakara, on the other hand, is on a 2-fight win streak. His chin can be a bit suspect at times, but I'm going to have to give the nod to him in this one.
It could also possibly be a boring 3 round stinker due to accumulated ring rust.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Post WEC 47 Thoughts
- Seemed like we got more fights (7) than normal. Wonder what the count is for previous WEC cards?
- Jens looked to surprise Javier Vazquez with leg kicks, but all it did was get him onto the ground faster. I'm hoping this was his last fight, for his own good. His last win was nearly 3 years ago and his last competitive fight was 2 years ago.
- All WEC bantamweight contenders should have taken notes on Benavidez's strategy against Miguel Torres. Combo into takedowns and keep the pressure on in his guard.
- I have no idea what they do with Torres right now.
- Bowles did the right thing, given the situation he was in. He was clearly not prepared for Cruz's style and strategy and probably would have lost the decision. With his hand not completely effed up, he now has the opportunity to recover sooner, and possibly get an immediate rematch. We'll see how generous the WEC is feeling when they do the matchmaking.
- If he doesn't get the rematch, I think Benavidez/Bowles should be next for #1 contender.
- Bonnar was a refreshing change of pace from Mir. He has less bias when he commentates and isn't as easily excited as Frank.
- Jens looked to surprise Javier Vazquez with leg kicks, but all it did was get him onto the ground faster. I'm hoping this was his last fight, for his own good. His last win was nearly 3 years ago and his last competitive fight was 2 years ago.
- All WEC bantamweight contenders should have taken notes on Benavidez's strategy against Miguel Torres. Combo into takedowns and keep the pressure on in his guard.
- I have no idea what they do with Torres right now.
- Bowles did the right thing, given the situation he was in. He was clearly not prepared for Cruz's style and strategy and probably would have lost the decision. With his hand not completely effed up, he now has the opportunity to recover sooner, and possibly get an immediate rematch. We'll see how generous the WEC is feeling when they do the matchmaking.
- If he doesn't get the rematch, I think Benavidez/Bowles should be next for #1 contender.
- Bonnar was a refreshing change of pace from Mir. He has less bias when he commentates and isn't as easily excited as Frank.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Post UFC 110 Thoughts
- Nog looked like the Nog from the Mir fight, in which he had a severe Staph infection.
Or was Cain really that much quicker than him?
- Again, Bisping proves he's all bark and no bite.
Looks like the Axe Murderer has a date with his sexiness, Akiyama.
- Sotiropoulos and Bader should no longer be remembered as TUF lowlies, but threats in their respective divisions.
- Why is Mirko fighting still? Does he really need the paycheck?
He's already done so much and I didn't even seem glimmers of his old, badass self.
- Sick submission by Lytle.
Or was Cain really that much quicker than him?
- Again, Bisping proves he's all bark and no bite.
Looks like the Axe Murderer has a date with his sexiness, Akiyama.
- Sotiropoulos and Bader should no longer be remembered as TUF lowlies, but threats in their respective divisions.
- Why is Mirko fighting still? Does he really need the paycheck?
He's already done so much and I didn't even seem glimmers of his old, badass self.
- Sick submission by Lytle.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
UFC 110 Picks
Just a quick rundown because I'm not particularly excited about the match-ups. And I'm really interested in reading Performify's analysis on the card.
Heavyweight Bout: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez
Unless you're reppin' Team AKA, I'd call you a silly bastard for not picking Minotauro. The man has triple the experience of Cain, can take ungodly amounts of punishment, and is the best HW grappler in the game.
Cain would need to add mercury to his gloves to beat him standing, and channel the living legend, Rickson Gracie, to even remotely stand a chance on the ground. Being an undefeated, blue chip stock in MMA isn't enough to convince me he will beat a legend, that is still showing promises of brilliance in his fights.
Middleweight Bout: Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
I predict this fight will be a little bit like Bisping/Leben, but have a finish similar to Bisping/Henderson.
Bisping is going to apply the same hit and run strategy he tried on Leben and Hendo, on account of the similar standup mentalities all 3 of them have; They are literally trying to kill you with their fists. The biggest difference between those 2 previous fights is that I believe Silva has the explosiveness to catch Bisping. I like Hendo and loved him more after he decimated Bisping's jaw, but I believe that was one really lucky punch he took Bisping out with.
Lightweight Bout: Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos
This is George's break into the big leagues and out of TUF squalor. I'm not completely sold on his standup, but I'm also not worried about Joe Daddy's. The interesting part will be how the fight goes on the ground. Both guys have BJJ black belts, but George seems much more comfortable being on top and bottom. Maybe not a finish by sub, but I expect George to be able to transition to the dominant positions for a decision or TKO stoppage.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader
I honestly can't remember how Jardine fairs on the ground, especially on bottom. There's a 80% chance the fight will end up there, with Bader working some GnP for the TKO.
But I'm also on the fence about the standup battle. All I know is Jardine will come out with his usual flailing monkey style and Bader will most likely be looking for the one hitter quitter.
Heavyweight Bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Ben Rothwell
Updated: Rothwell is out with an illness
I'm still analyzing based on the original matchup because I no nothing about Anthony Perosh.
This was probably going to be Crocop's swan song in the UFC. He hasn't looked good in any of his UFC fights and Rothwell is a poor stylistic choice for him.
Rothwell is aggressive in the standup and won't let Crocop setup for any of his vintage strikes. Unless Big Ben gasses quickly, which seemed plausible in his fight against Cain, I don't see Crocop winning.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Guest Post - Frank Mir is a Top Heavyweight
Me and my buddy, Eric, were discussing the upcoming Mir/Carwin fight and it got a little heated because he feels that Mir is better than I give him credit for.
For further elaboration, I asked him to do an entry for the blog:
ABSTRACT
Mir has a realistic chance of beating any heavyweight out there except Fedor. A key point is that he has good submissions off his back, which is critical since many of the top heavyweights are elite wrestlers who will surely put him on his back. (BTW, Mir was a high school state champ in wrestling himself, so actually his wrestling is underrated IMO -- but obviously that just doesn't compare to NCAA All-American.) In most cases it comes down to whether Mir can submit the other guy from his back; if not, his opponent will win by control.
OPPONENTS (IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY)
1. Fedor Emelianenko
Fedor destroys Mir due to superior skills in all aspects of the game. He lands more powerful strikes, has excellent balance on the feet due to being a Sambo champion, and has a fundamentally sound and deadly submission game. Certainly Mir will not be able to submit Fedor, especially since Nogueira couldn't. Mir is not known for his GNP, and the only thing Fedor *might* be susceptible to is a cut. However I expect Fedor will probably take him down and GNP to death.
Fedor is a 75-25 favorite.
2. Josh Barnett
I actually think this would be Mir's greatest test outside of Fedor, not Lesnar or otherwise. (This is due to style matchup, not because I think Barnett is the 2nd best heavyweight.) Barnett is a fairly large heavyweight, who knows how to use his size to control opponents. He has tons of experience, excellent ground game, decent standup. I think he has way too much experience and savvy to be submitted by Mir, and I think he's a little better in all other aspects including wrestling. So he controls the fight and takes the win.
I would make Barnett a 65-35 favorite.
3. Brock Lesnar
Both Lesnar and Mir have the power to hurt the other fighter on the feet. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that Brock takes Mir down. I will just assume that Mir starts from his back. That will basically test Brock's top control against Mir's dangerous guard game. Brock beat Mir in their rematch by overpowering him on the ground. With Mir currently bulked up to 265, and possibly to 285 in the future as planned, this will no longer happen. Although Brock will still be stronger (pending his recovery from his intestinal health problems), he will not be able to overwhelm Mir with brute force on the ground. The question is whether his additional bulk with impede Mir's already suspect cardio. If not, it comes down to a question of skill. Mir has a very dangerous guard and could submit Brock with a variety of submissions. But if he doesn't submit Brock, then Brock takes it by control (Mir also has to be careful about GNP of course).
I put odds at 50-50.
4. Shane Carwin
He has tremendous power so if he hits Mir flush it's lights out; however his striking looks very sloppy. Of course he also has good wrestling and tremendous GNP, relying on sheer power more than technique to overwhelm opponents; in this aspect he is even more dangerous than Brock. I think Mir has more polished striking and will play "stick and move" with him. If he's taken down, as I thin is likely, Mir could submit him off his back, but also an equal probability could get TKO'd via GNP.
I would put odds at 50-50.
5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mir already beat him, with the caveat that Nogueira had a staph infection. I'm not sure if that explains why Big Nog was so stiff and let Mir uppercut him to death. Even though Nogueira clearly has a better pedigree of fights, he also has much more wear & tear on him. At this stage, I would say he is even with Mir both in standup and on the ground.
I would again say chances of Mir winning are about 50-50.
6. Cain Velasquez
I don't think Cain has the power to finish Mir either on the feet or on the ground, as illustrated by Cain's fight with Kongo. His wrestling will put Mir on his back, where I think Mir would submit him due to his experience. I put Mir a 60-40 favorite.
7. Junior dos Santos
Has good power on the feet, but I think Mir has decent standup -- enough to avoid getting KO'ed. Once on the ground, dos Santos is a purple belt in BJJ, but gets submitted by Mir.
I put Mir as a 70-30 favorite.
8. Brett Rogers
He has great power on the feet, but hasn't shown anything on the ground. If Mir gets him down, I think Mir could easily submit him.
I put Mir at 75-25.
9. Cheick Kongo
Mir already beat him, was easier than I expected. I expected Kongo to hurt Mir on the feet, not the other way around. Once it hit the ground, game was done.
For further elaboration, I asked him to do an entry for the blog:
ABSTRACT
Mir has a realistic chance of beating any heavyweight out there except Fedor. A key point is that he has good submissions off his back, which is critical since many of the top heavyweights are elite wrestlers who will surely put him on his back. (BTW, Mir was a high school state champ in wrestling himself, so actually his wrestling is underrated IMO -- but obviously that just doesn't compare to NCAA All-American.) In most cases it comes down to whether Mir can submit the other guy from his back; if not, his opponent will win by control.
OPPONENTS (IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY)
1. Fedor Emelianenko
Fedor destroys Mir due to superior skills in all aspects of the game. He lands more powerful strikes, has excellent balance on the feet due to being a Sambo champion, and has a fundamentally sound and deadly submission game. Certainly Mir will not be able to submit Fedor, especially since Nogueira couldn't. Mir is not known for his GNP, and the only thing Fedor *might* be susceptible to is a cut. However I expect Fedor will probably take him down and GNP to death.
Fedor is a 75-25 favorite.
2. Josh Barnett
I actually think this would be Mir's greatest test outside of Fedor, not Lesnar or otherwise. (This is due to style matchup, not because I think Barnett is the 2nd best heavyweight.) Barnett is a fairly large heavyweight, who knows how to use his size to control opponents. He has tons of experience, excellent ground game, decent standup. I think he has way too much experience and savvy to be submitted by Mir, and I think he's a little better in all other aspects including wrestling. So he controls the fight and takes the win.
I would make Barnett a 65-35 favorite.
3. Brock Lesnar
Both Lesnar and Mir have the power to hurt the other fighter on the feet. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that Brock takes Mir down. I will just assume that Mir starts from his back. That will basically test Brock's top control against Mir's dangerous guard game. Brock beat Mir in their rematch by overpowering him on the ground. With Mir currently bulked up to 265, and possibly to 285 in the future as planned, this will no longer happen. Although Brock will still be stronger (pending his recovery from his intestinal health problems), he will not be able to overwhelm Mir with brute force on the ground. The question is whether his additional bulk with impede Mir's already suspect cardio. If not, it comes down to a question of skill. Mir has a very dangerous guard and could submit Brock with a variety of submissions. But if he doesn't submit Brock, then Brock takes it by control (Mir also has to be careful about GNP of course).
I put odds at 50-50.
4. Shane Carwin
He has tremendous power so if he hits Mir flush it's lights out; however his striking looks very sloppy. Of course he also has good wrestling and tremendous GNP, relying on sheer power more than technique to overwhelm opponents; in this aspect he is even more dangerous than Brock. I think Mir has more polished striking and will play "stick and move" with him. If he's taken down, as I thin is likely, Mir could submit him off his back, but also an equal probability could get TKO'd via GNP.
I would put odds at 50-50.
5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mir already beat him, with the caveat that Nogueira had a staph infection. I'm not sure if that explains why Big Nog was so stiff and let Mir uppercut him to death. Even though Nogueira clearly has a better pedigree of fights, he also has much more wear & tear on him. At this stage, I would say he is even with Mir both in standup and on the ground.
I would again say chances of Mir winning are about 50-50.
6. Cain Velasquez
I don't think Cain has the power to finish Mir either on the feet or on the ground, as illustrated by Cain's fight with Kongo. His wrestling will put Mir on his back, where I think Mir would submit him due to his experience. I put Mir a 60-40 favorite.
7. Junior dos Santos
Has good power on the feet, but I think Mir has decent standup -- enough to avoid getting KO'ed. Once on the ground, dos Santos is a purple belt in BJJ, but gets submitted by Mir.
I put Mir as a 70-30 favorite.
8. Brett Rogers
He has great power on the feet, but hasn't shown anything on the ground. If Mir gets him down, I think Mir could easily submit him.
I put Mir at 75-25.
9. Cheick Kongo
Mir already beat him, was easier than I expected. I expected Kongo to hurt Mir on the feet, not the other way around. Once it hit the ground, game was done.
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