Guest Post - Frank Mir is a Top Heavyweight

Me and my buddy, Eric, were discussing the upcoming Mir/Carwin fight and it got a little heated because he feels that Mir is better than I give him credit for.
For further elaboration, I asked him to do an entry for the blog:

ABSTRACT

Mir has a realistic chance of beating any heavyweight out there except Fedor. A key point is that he has good submissions off his back, which is critical since many of the top heavyweights are elite wrestlers who will surely put him on his back. (BTW, Mir was a high school state champ in wrestling himself, so actually his wrestling is underrated IMO -- but obviously that just doesn't compare to NCAA All-American.) In most cases it comes down to whether Mir can submit the other guy from his back; if not, his opponent will win by control.

OPPONENTS (IN ORDER OF DIFFICULTY)


1. Fedor Emelianenko

Fedor destroys Mir due to superior skills in all aspects of the game. He lands more powerful strikes, has excellent balance on the feet due to being a Sambo champion, and has a fundamentally sound and deadly submission game. Certainly Mir will not be able to submit Fedor, especially since Nogueira couldn't. Mir is not known for his GNP, and the only thing Fedor *might* be susceptible to is a cut. However I expect Fedor will probably take him down and GNP to death.
Fedor is a 75-25 favorite.


2. Josh Barnett

I actually think this would be Mir's greatest test outside of Fedor, not Lesnar or otherwise. (This is due to style matchup, not because I think Barnett is the 2nd best heavyweight.) Barnett is a fairly large heavyweight, who knows how to use his size to control opponents. He has tons of experience, excellent ground game, decent standup. I think he has way too much experience and savvy to be submitted by Mir, and I think he's a little better in all other aspects including wrestling. So he controls the fight and takes the win.
I would make Barnett a 65-35 favorite.


3. Brock Lesnar

Both Lesnar and Mir have the power to hurt the other fighter on the feet. The overwhelmingly likely scenario is that Brock takes Mir down. I will just assume that Mir starts from his back. That will basically test Brock's top control against Mir's dangerous guard game. Brock beat Mir in their rematch by overpowering him on the ground. With Mir currently bulked up to 265, and possibly to 285 in the future as planned, this will no longer happen. Although Brock will still be stronger (pending his recovery from his intestinal health problems), he will not be able to overwhelm Mir with brute force on the ground. The question is whether his additional bulk with impede Mir's already suspect cardio. If not, it comes down to a question of skill. Mir has a very dangerous guard and could submit Brock with a variety of submissions. But if he doesn't submit Brock, then Brock takes it by control (Mir also has to be careful about GNP of course).
I put odds at 50-50.


4. Shane Carwin

He has tremendous power so if he hits Mir flush it's lights out; however his striking looks very sloppy. Of course he also has good wrestling and tremendous GNP, relying on sheer power more than technique to overwhelm opponents; in this aspect he is even more dangerous than Brock. I think Mir has more polished striking and will play "stick and move" with him. If he's taken down, as I thin is likely, Mir could submit him off his back, but also an equal probability could get TKO'd via GNP.
I would put odds at 50-50.


5. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Mir already beat him, with the caveat that Nogueira had a staph infection. I'm not sure if that explains why Big Nog was so stiff and let Mir uppercut him to death. Even though Nogueira clearly has a better pedigree of fights, he also has much more wear & tear on him. At this stage, I would say he is even with Mir both in standup and on the ground.
I would again say chances of Mir winning are about 50-50.


6. Cain Velasquez

I don't think Cain has the power to finish Mir either on the feet or on the ground, as illustrated by Cain's fight with Kongo. His wrestling will put Mir on his back, where I think Mir would submit him due to his experience. I put Mir a 60-40 favorite.


7. Junior dos Santos

Has good power on the feet, but I think Mir has decent standup -- enough to avoid getting KO'ed. Once on the ground, dos Santos is a purple belt in BJJ, but gets submitted by Mir.
I put Mir as a 70-30 favorite.


8. Brett Rogers

He has great power on the feet, but hasn't shown anything on the ground. If Mir gets him down, I think Mir could easily submit him.
I put Mir at 75-25.


9. Cheick Kongo

Mir already beat him, was easier than I expected. I expected Kongo to hurt Mir on the feet, not the other way around. Once it hit the ground, game was done.