UFC 104 Strategy and Predictions

I finally get to do PRE-event thoughts!
My excitement is limited to the main card only though.


WW: Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida

The heir apparent to GSP somewhere around 2013 will face his stiffest test since Rich Clementi. I like his chances in this match mainly because of his striking talents. Its still very raw but extremely fast and powerful. This would be the main skill that reminds people of "Rush". He's also going to have the reach and size advantage, due to his frame and weight cutting, which should help in the clinch.
Yoshida is a very experienced judoka with average standup and an above average jujitsu game. He'll definitely be the smaller of the two so I'd also expect him to be faster and lighter on his feet.Everyone remembers his horrendous KO at the hands of Koscheck but it was clearly a strategy issue and not based around his skills or talents. I don't think he'll be making that mistake twice.
"Rumble" should try to keep it standing and unload his vicious punches and kicks to try and outdo Koscheck's brutal KO of "Zenko". He should avoid any sort of clinch or close quarters striking that would give Yoshida the opportunity to pull off any judo throws or takedowns.
Yoshida should avoid any standup confrontations at all cost and work takedowns into his combos. Once on the ground, a submission should be academic.
The variables will be Johnson's strength, "athleticism" and Yoshida's overall strategy.

Anthony Johnson via KO in Round 2


LW: Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher

I feel this is the battle for gatekeeper status. Both men have fairly long MMA careers with wins and losses to some decent fighters but most were not top tier (excluding BJ and Florian). I also don't think either could make a run at whomever the champ may be when they get there - especially not against "The Prodigy".
Joe "Daddy" has a good guillotine but nothing else to really support a strong bjj game that would prove a threat to Fisher. His takedowns will be the key point for him to focus on in this match.
"The King" is a brawler wearing gloves and he's going to make the Octagon his alleyway. With an improved takedown defense, he should have no problem keeping it standing and get the decision victory. If it goes to the ground, he'll have no problem looking for subs on bottom or GNP from the top.

Joe Stevenson via Decision


LW: Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer

I wonder if Sherk pulled out of this match on purpose? Not really sure what purpose it serves in beating Tibau. I do know that Neer is a trooper and would probably take a fight with a stingray if they paid him enough. He's tough and has a never-say-die attitude. It should serve him well against Tibau, who hasn't really shown much as of late. This match will be decided on Neer's willingness to push the pace and prevent the constant, bad takedown attempts that Gleison will attempt.

Josh Neer via Decision


HW: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell

I see this as a win-win for both guys. The upcomer against the veteran, with both having a lot to gain from a victory here. Cain gains status, builds more momentum in the HW landscape and establishes himself as being very formidable if he can beat the seasoned, uncrowned, IFL vet. A win for "Big Ben" against a highly touted UFC fighter in his first outing should establish himself as a main carder for at least the duration of his first UFC contract.
Everyone will expect Cain to take it to the ground given his collegiate wrestling background, but I would recommend he mix it up more and keep Rothwell confused. He's probably not going to worry about Ben's hands, after receiving that beating by Kongo's but still pulling through and getting the "W". Ben just might be too concerned with getting taken down, and get caught right on the chin.
Being in the game for a while now, Ben should not come in with any Ocatagon "jitters", but hit the ground running and push the pace against Cain. He's well rounded in all aspects of the game and is on the heavier level in the division, in terms of weight. His cardio may not be as great as Cain's, but I don't think Ben will have too much trouble keeping up. There's no doubt in my mind that Rothwell will get taken down, so he should be very active on the ground, looking for openings to bring it back to the feet so Cain has to expend more energy getting up and defending himself in the process. I don't think submissions are the way to go, given Cain's wrestling background and excellent cardio, which helps in maneuvering and ground defense.

Ben Rothwell via Decision


LHW Championship: Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua

I'd like to take a vote and see how many people will buy this card specifically for this match only. Looking over the entire card, there's not much even a die hard fan would really be interested in here. The key question is, are people more interested in seeing Lyoto retain the belt or Rua fulfilling his 2005 prophecy as the best LHW?
I'm hoping for the former.
I don't think we've seen enough out of "Shogun" in his UFC career to warrant that this is his second coming. I'm not sold on him returning to his old form, especially after having two major surgeries in two years. He clearly showed in his last fight that he's got a little more patience now and is willing to gameplan more than just rush his opponents and attack Ong Bak style. He has retained his bodylock takedowns and bjj rolling defense. Otherwise, I need to see more matches with him utilizing his dynamic striking, crazy athletic strikes and constant pace pushing on the ground and standing.
Lyoto's UFC career has been quite the opposite. After beating 4 jobbers, they finally realized he could make a major impact in the LHW division. Way back after Rampage became champ, I predicted there would be no LHW champ that could successfully reign, with the exception of Lyoto, if he could take the title. He's never lost a round in the UFC and probably won't for at least a couple more matches until someone finally solves the riddle of "The Dragon" and Machida Karate. I'm sure Machida, his dad and brothers have all pinpointed weaknesses in Shogun's standup game but frankly, I don't think it even matters.
Conversely, Rua's team has their work cut out for them in terms of putting together a reasonable strategy to implement. With his comfortability in going for those bodylock takedowns, he should try to use those and stay on the ground. He's shown to have a legitimate bjj offense, that may prove formidable enough to snatch away the belt. As of late, Shogun's standup hasn't proven formidable enough that he should try it on the Champ.

Lyoto Machida via TKO in Round 2


It should be an exciting night and I'm sure there will be surprises. If any of you are crazy enough to think I know what I'm talking about, please do NOT use my analysis to bet on any of the matches.
Well, unless you plan on splitting the profits with me.

As an aside, no Dream 12 pre-fight thoughts just because I don't have enough time.

Let's see those comments roll in!

~S